Impact of AI on Job Market in Europe and the US
Recent developments in artificial intelligence (AI) have the potential to lead to the automation of a considerable fraction of jobs in Europe and the US, impacting hundreds of millions of people, as stated by a report by Goldman Sachs, which was cited by the Financial Times.Recent developments in artificial intelligence (AI) have the potential to lead to the automation of a considerable fraction of jobs in Europe and the US, impacting hundreds of millions of people, as stated by a report by Goldman Sachs, which was cited by the Financial Times. Although AI generative systems, such as ChatGPT, can create content that is difficult to differentiate from human-generated content, boosting labor productivity and increasing the global gross domestic product (GDP) by 7% within ten years, it will also cause “significant disruption” in the job market. Automation by AI alone is expected to impact 300 million jobs in the major economies of Europe and the US, with lawyers and administrative personnel believed to be at the highest risk of losing their jobs.
In most professions, automation will affect less than half of the workload, leading to increased productivity rather than job losses.
This scenario applies to 63% of jobs, while another 30% of those working in physical jobs or outdoors will experience few changes, although their work could be subject to other forms of automation. In the US, approximately 7% of professionals work in positions where generative AI could perform at least half of the tasks, and these workers could be replaced by computers. A similar effect is expected in Europe. Globally, considering that physical labor makes up a significant portion of employment in developing countries, AI could perform about 20% of tasks. AI implementation will impact the jobs of around 300 million people in large economies.
The predictions put forth by Goldman Sachs analysts are conservative. OpenAI, the company responsible for ChatGPT, predicted that at least 10% of tasks of 80% of all workers in the US could be performed by generative AI. In addition, Europol warned of the impending invasion of “dark big language models,” which could become the “key criminal business model of the future.”
Investments in the AI business are expected to grow at the same rate as software investments in the 1990s, with their volume expected to exceed $60 billion in the US alone by 2030, according to McKinsey. AI technology development will continue, leading to more widespread automation and increasing pressure on workers to adapt to new roles. Companies will need to quickly adapt to remain competitive, while governments and other organizations will have to support workers who lose their jobs as a result of these changes.